Migrants seeking asylum from Mexico, India and Ecuador
waiting to be apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol officers
after crossing over a section of border wall into the U.S. in Arizona
| Photo Credit: Brandon Bell
United States President Donald Trump introduced sweeping changes immediately after being sworn in, which could have a lasting impact on millions of undocumented migrants in the U.S. and the hundreds of thousands of people seeking entry at the country’s borders. Mr. Trump pledged to “deport millions and millions of criminal aliens,” referring to undocumented migrants living in the country.
While Mr. Trump has frequently claimed that former President Joe Biden allowed 15-20 million illegal immigrants into the country, official figures estimate that there are around 11 million (Chart 1). Other estimates suggest that there are 13-14 million illegal immigrants. But none of these comes close to Mr. Trump’s assertions. Around 2.1 lakh Indians were included in these estimates (as of 2022).
Chart 1 | Estimates of illegal immigrants in the U.S. according to the Dept. of Homeland Security
Nearly 80% of the estimated 11 million undocumented migrants currently in the U.S. arrived before 2010. Chart 2 shows that 1.5 million of them entered decades ago, between 1980 and 1990.
Chart 2 | The chart shows the current illegal immigrant population estimates across various periods of entries
Reports state that Mr. Trump has also dismissed top immigration court officials who are responsible for deciding who gets asylum and who does not. There are more than 3 million cases pending in immigration courts. In addition, Mr. Trump has shut down the mobile app CBP One, the sole platform for requesting asylum in the U.S.
Chart 3 shows that in just over a year, the backlog in immigration courts increased from 2.4 million to 3.5 million (Q4 of 2023-Q4 of 2024)
Notably, the number of Indians attempting to enter the U.S. illegally has surged in recent years. A decade ago, U.S. border authorities stopped more than 1,500 Indian illegal migrants. This figure rose sharply to 96,917 in 2023 and 90,415 in 2024. There was a similar spike seen among Indians seeking asylum in the U.S.
Moreover, a Bill passed by the Senate empowers officials to detain and even deport undocumented migrants who are arrested for or charged with even non-violent petty crimes such as shoplifting. Mr. Trump has blamed migrants for fuelling violent crime in the country.
But data show that the violent offending rate of undocumented migrants is significantly lower than that of U.S.-born citizens. The rate measures the frequency of criminal offenses committed by a specific population.
Chart 4 presents the rate of violent crimes committed in Texas between 2012 and 2018 by U.S.-born citizens, documented immigrants, and undocumented immigrants. The rate of violent crimes committed by undocumented migrants was half than that those committed by U.S.-born citizens and significantly lower than those done by documented immigrants.
Chart 4 | Rate of violent crimes committed in Texas between 2012 and 2018 by various groups
A significant majority of undocumented migrants contribute to the U.S. workforce, particularly in construction and agriculture. With discussions of mass deportations gaining momentum, business owners in these sectors are increasingly concerned about finding viable alternatives.
A 2018 study by the Centre for Migration Studies of New York estimated that 5.5 million undocumented migrants are part of the U.S. workforce (Chart 5). If deported en masse, the most immediate impact would be felt on construction sites, in farms, and in restaurants. Essential services such as landscaping, laundry, auto repair, and safety and sanitation would also face severe disruptions.
Chart 5 | The chart shows the sectors in which the 5.5 million undocumented migrants worked as of 2018. Figures are estimates
The recent changes aim to deport undocumented migrants without a clear understanding of their numbers. Many have lived in the U.S. for decades, contribute significantly to essential services, and lead lives with relatively lower levels of criminal activity.
Source: The data for the charts 1 and 2 was from Office of Homeland Security Statistics, chart 3 from Congressional research service, chart 4 from a report by National Institute of Justice — a U.S. government agency — published on September 12, 2024 and hart 5 from Centre for Migration Studies of New York
vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in
nitika.francis@thehindu.co.in
Published – January 29, 2025 07:00 am IST
