NHL predictions 4.0: New Stanley Cup favorite, Vezina sweep and tight Eastern playoff race

By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman, Jesse Granger, James Mirtle and The Athletic NHL Staff

In October, The Athletic’s NHL staff didn’t consider the Vegas Golden Knights a serious Stanley Cup contender. There’s no other way to put it — seven teams received preseason votes to win the Cup, and Vegas wasn’t one of them.

A little more than three months later, though, they’re in the thick of the Presidents’ Trophy race and our new favorite to win the whole thing.

What else has changed? This week, we polled staffers on the same set of questions we asked in the preseason. Here’s how our expectations for 2024-25 have further evolved, with expert analysis and critique from NHL senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and goaltending expert Jesse Granger.

Note: Tables display the percentage of votes received each month. You can find our season predictions from October here and awards predictions here. You can find our predictions from November here and December here.

Who will win the Stanley Cup?

Gentille: I’m surprised to see that many folks cut bait on the Panthers. Have they been great? Nope; in their last 10 games, they’re 4-5-1 with a minus-6 goal differential. Still, you either believe in them or you don’t. I don’t think an up-and-down regular season, given what we saw in 2023-24, is enough to change my mind.

Goldman: Also surprised that Colorado and Edmonton aren’t higher here. The Avalanche have really steady goaltending now and the Oilers are back on track. No disrespect to Vegas and Dallas, I just think we should have a bit more of an even spread here!

Granger: Not surprised to see Vegas top the rankings. Lately, the Golden Knights have looked a lot more like the strong, structured team that went on the Cup run two seasons ago. The Golden Knights have gotten excellent goaltending from both Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov, and Jack Eichel is playing better than ever. It’s tough to find a glaring weakness.

Mirtle: Nearly 80 percent of voters picking four teams feels like a lot of consensus in a league where it’s pretty wide open. I’m sticking with Carolina (the lone holdout apparently!) as they’ll add a goalie before the deadline (or get Frederik Andersen back) and be a lot to handle in the East.

Who will be the runners-up?

Gentille: When the Leafs were on their five-game winning streak, I wondered how much ground they’d make up here. Then, they hit the skids. Never mind.

Goldman: Three straight final appearances for the Panthers? I buy it. There are only so many real threats to choose from in the East here (since it seems like we’re betting on a Western Conference champ).

Granger: It’s nice to see the Devils gaining more support in these polls. They’re currently my pick to win it all with their high-powered offensive attack combined with the way Jacob Markström is playing in net.

Mirtle: I think we’re sleeping on the Jets a bit given how Connor Hellebuyck is playing. They’re currently second in Dom Luszczyszyn’s Cup projections.

Who will finish in last place?

Gentille: It’s impossible to choose against the Blackhawks here, but don’t count out the Sharks. They’ve got better pieces to send out around the deadline.

Granger: San Jose looks like a completely different team from the past couple of years. If you play tight, structured defense against the Sharks, they still don’t have many answers for it. However, if you give them space they have the skill to make you pay. It’s no longer a gimme on the schedule.

Mirtle: Agreed but Alexandar Georgiev is their tank commander. If Yaroslav Askarov keeps playing a lot, this is Chicago’s for sure.

Goldman: The real question is going to be which team sells more at the deadline — that could be the ultimate decider here between San Jose and Chicago.

Who is the biggest disappointment?

Must be projected at 100-plus points by Dom Luszczyszyn’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.

Gentille: Stop the count.

Goldman: There are really only two logical choices here — Vancouver and New York — but one of them really spiraled out of control for two-ish months so …

Granger: At this point, it’s tough to pick anyone other than the Rangers, but they are 3-0-1 since Igor Shesterkin returned from injury. Three of those games were against some of the best teams in the league (New Jersey, Vegas and Colorado). It’s a steep uphill climb from here, but New York has looked markedly better defensively.

Who’s your dark horse Cup contender?

Must be projected as a middle-of-the-pack team, between 85 and 100 points by Dom’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.

Gentille: It’s incredible to me that Vegas started the season so far down the list, and it’s incredible to me that the Caps currently are that low.

Granger: Again, it feels weird to consider Vegas a “dark horse.”

Mirtle: Most of these dark horses are just plain horses at this point. I went with Tampa Bay given it’s the one contender getting slept on a bit, given Andrei Vasilevskiy is having a better season and the Lightning are third in the league in goal differential before Friday’s matchups.

Goldman: That’s just it, so many of these teams don’t feel like true dark horses. So when there are options like the Golden Knights, teams like Washington and Ottawa aren’t getting picked.

Who’s your surprise playoff team?

Must be projected below 85 points by Dom’s model at the start of the season. Projected point total in parentheses.

Gentille: I want to believe in the Blue Jackets, but their goaltending situation makes it tough.

Granger: That’s exactly why I went with Calgary over Columbus. I’m a believer in Dustin Wolf, who is 15-7-2 with the eighth-most goals saved above expected in the league (13.42) as a rookie.

Goldman: If the Canucks can’t get out of their own way, the Flames should benefit. In the East, it’s going to be interesting to see which teams pull themselves out of the race by selling at the deadline like the Flyers last year.

Mirtle: Everybody should be aboard the C-Bus here right now with the way they’re playing.

Is Predators coach Andrew Brunette on the hot seat? (Johnnie Izquierdo / Getty Images)

Who will be the next coach fired?

Gentille: Andrew Brunette deserves to be the guy, but it’s worth noting that the Predators have played basically break-even hockey since the middle of December.

Granger: I’m torn on this because I like Brunette as a coach, but based solely on expectations and results this is a slam-dunk pick.

Mirtle: I know he’s only been there 81 games, but I wonder if there’s more heat on Patrick Roy at some point, too.

Goldman: Mirtle has a point … but the real pressure should be above him. At this point, Peter Laviolette seems like an offseason change, so Brunette is the fitting first choice — I know Nashville’s trending up relative to where they were, but I’m just not sold on him either yet.

East playoff field

We asked each voter to pick the eight East playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team.

(*-playoff team in 2023-24)

Gentille: If I knew the Canadiens were polling at zero, I’d have tossed them a pity vote. The wild-card race is a mosh pit.

Granger: Things were looking bleak for the Senators when Linus Ullmark went down with a back injury — losing six of seven — but then Leevi Merilainen came to the rescue. I’m not jumping off the bandwagon just yet.

Goldman: Boston’s stock has seriously dropped, but there are so many middling teams around them that they should still benefit and make the cut. Here’s hoping Ottawa, Detroit and Columbus can make this a real race.

Mirtle: Finally at long last some life from the bottom of the Atlantic! (Except Buffalo.)

West playoff field

We asked each voter to pick the eight West playoff teams. Here is the percentage of the votes received by each team.

(*-playoff team in 2023-24)

Gentille: Man, I’m starting to feel bad for the Flames. Not bad enough to change my opinion of them, but bad all the same.

Granger: The West feels a lot more decided than the East does at this point, and these numbers show that in a big way.

Goldman: The Canucks just have more elite talent and that’s going to give them the edge over Calgary. That the Flames are in the conversation is still impressive, though.

Mirtle: What a war it’ll be for those top seven teams. Everyone playing for the right to face No. 8 and not one of the others, at this point.

Hart Trophy

Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).

Gentille: I’m rarely interested in the Hart race. This season, though, is an exception. Zach Werenski would show up on some ballots if voting were held today, too.

Goldman: Only 7.4 percent for Quinn Hughes, in this economy???

Granger: Only 11.1 percent voting for Hellebuyck is wild to me. He’s the most important player to his team in the NHL and I don’t think there’s a close second.

Mirtle: Let’s have a goalie, defenseman and a forward as finalists, as the hockey gods intended.

WHO LET THE DOGG OUT?!#GoAvsGo pic.twitter.com/dKDboRxRTX

— Colorado Avalanche (@Avalanche) January 17, 2025

Rocket Richard Trophy

Given to the leading goal scorer at the end of the regular season.

Gentille: I picked Mikko Rantanen last season. He didn’t come all that close. Now, I can just say I was ahead of the curve.

Granger: It’s worth noting the underlying metrics suggest Leon Draisaitl is running really hot right now, while Rantanen’s scoring is closer to expectations. Rantanen is second in the league entering Friday’s matchups with 21.2 expected goals and has scored 25. Draisaitl has nearly doubled his expected goal total of 17.1 (which ranks 26th leaguewide entering Friday’s matchups).

Goldman: The one thing with Draisaitl that may help him keep up this pace is that he probably has more to give on the power play. He tends to outscore expectations by a greater margin and his correct scoring rate of 2.85 goals per 60 on the advantage is his lowest since 2017-18. If that picks up, it may balance out any potential regression at five-on-five.

Zach Werenski has emerged as a legitimate contender for the Norris Trophy. (Russell LaBounty / Imagn Images)

Norris Trophy

Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.

Gentille: Those are the right names. I’m not sure they’re in the correct order.

Goldman: Pretty much. The Hughes-Makar race down the stretch should be fun, but personally, I am the most hyped about Werenski finally getting his due.

Granger: I’ve been a Makar voter in all four rounds of this, but Hughes is starting to win me over. The on-ice numbers for Vancouver with and without him are getting ridiculous.

Mirtle: I threw in a Werenski vote. He’s been unbelievable for them and with a lot less experienced help around him. This is a great year for the Norris.

Zach Werenski assisted on the @BlueJacketsNHL’s 1-0 goal by Adam Fantilli and became the sixth defenseman in NHL history with an 18-game home point streak.#NHLStats: https://t.co/Px7DmZTdwl pic.twitter.com/dTEw0jKjDz

— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) January 17, 2025

Selke Trophy

Given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.

Gentille: Sam Reinhart’s case is pretty solid, but it’s tough to imagine him beating out his own center for this one. Also, it’s long past time for Sidney Crosby to stop popping up on the list.

Goldman: The winger versus center conversation is going to favor Aleksander Barkov every day of the week, but I would give it to Reinhart this time. Also nice to see guys like Anthony Cirelli living up to the hype as a Selke candidate — the race behind the two leading Panthers is deep.

Granger: It is so difficult to differentiate defensive play between two skaters who play on the same line, which is why I think it always defaults to the center.

Vezina Trophy

Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by the general managers of all 32 NHL clubs.

Gentille: Stop the count, Part II.

Granger: Hellebuyck is set to join Dominik Hasek, Martin Brodeur and Patrick Roy as the only goalies with three or more Vezinas since the criteria was changed for the award in 1981.

Goldman: If Logan Thompson was in a true starting capacity and not just a 1A, I think he’d join this conversation. But barring him outright taking over in Washington or Shesterkin doing something wild to drag the Rangers into the playoffs … This is a race for second and third place.

Mirtle: Have they ever given the Vezina out in January? Hellebuyck’s contract looks like such a ridiculous steal these days.

Connor Hellebuyck flashes the leather on the breakaway 🚨 pic.twitter.com/6ggck6Orwd

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) January 17, 2025

Jack Adams Award

Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.

Gentille: Love this. Spencer Carbery has the juice, and the Caps aren’t just riding a hot goalie or a shooting percentage wave. They’re legit, and plenty of that is due to him.

Goldman: Carbery probably should have gotten more hype last year, but he has earned it all this season. Dean Evason is a fantastic pick here too and should definitely end up on the final ballot even if the Blue Jackets fall out of the playoff race.

Granger: I can’t argue with Carbery, but I do think we take Rod Brind’Amour for granted. Carolina is such a machine that seems to run smoothly regardless of which players go in or out.

Calder Trophy

Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.

Gentille: Lane Hutson would be my vote today, but I think Macklin Celebrini will wind up as the guy in April.

Granger: I hyped up Wolf earlier, but Celebrini is the easy pick here. He’s a special talent.

Mirtle: Another award with three great candidates at three positions. If Calgary makes the playoffs, Wolf has to at least be a finalist here, although not playing more games means he likely can’t overtake Celebrini and Hutson. Even though he’s on pace for more wins than when Brodeur and Tom Barrasso won rookie of the year!

Goldman: I think Celebrini is going to pick up the pace and show that he is the favorite down the stretch, but Wolf is a great pick to round out the ballot. Yes, it’s hard measuring forwards and defenders up to goalies, but he sits eighth in the league in goals saved above expected before Friday’s matchups and is piling up quality starts.

(Top photo: Jeff Bottari / NHLI via Getty Images)